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Dissertation - Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies in Indian Stock Market using Moving Averages

Number of Words : 9826

Number of References : 11


 Acknowledgement 4
 1. Introduction 6
 2. Literature Review 7
 2.1. History of Technical Analysis 9
 2.2. Description of Technical Analysis: 10
 2.3. Basis of Technical Analysis 12
 2.4. Methods of Technical Analysis: 13
 2.5. Moving Average: A Method of Technical Analysis 17
 3. Objectives of the Study 32
 4. Research Methodology 33
 4.1. Collection and Extraction of Data 33
 4.2. Data Analysis: 34
 4.3. Calculation of Moving Average (Simple and Exponential): 34
 5. Results 38
 5.1. Support 38
 5.2. Resistances: 39
 5.3. Simple Moving Average Implications 40
 5.4. 100 DMA Calls 41
 5.5. Cross Over Calls: 44
 6. Conclusion 49
 7. References 50


Over the past decades, attempts have been made by traders and researchers aiming to find a reliable method to predict next action of the securities. As a result we have a variety of different fundamental and technical analysis methods and many theories today that really work. <br />Technical analysis is a common method to evaluating securities and determining the next direction of the price through using chart patterns and mathematical indicators or a combination of both. <br />As a matter of fact a large portion of market traders prefer to use technical indicators to confirm suggested chart patterns or trading opportunities.<br />Technical Analysis uses charts and computer programs to study the stock’s trading volume and price movements in the hope of identifying a trend. In fact the decision made on the basis of technical analysis is done only after inferring a trend and judging the future movement of the stock on the basis of the trend. <br />Most chart patterns show a lot of variation in price movement. This can make it difficult for traders to get an idea of a security's overall trend. One simple method traders use to combat this is to apply Moving Averages. A moving average is the average price of a security over a set amount of time. By plotting a security's average price, the price movement is smoothed out. Once the day-to-day fluctuations are removed, traders are better able to identify the true trend and increase the probability that it will work in their favor.<br />The objective of this study is to comprehend the simplest and the most popular of all technical analysis methodologies: Moving Averages (MA) and secondly to explore the possibility whether gains can be made in a stock market based on such trading rules, in effect scrutinizing the weak form efficiency of the markets. This study would be an assessment of the beliefs and benefits of trading based on moving averages-based technical analysis alone.<br />

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